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Global warming. What it is and New Zealand's role The primary purpose of the New Zealand Wind Energy Association is to encourage the economic and sustainable development of wind energy in New Zealand and less to highlight the problems associated with global warming. What is global warming? Although Carbon Dioxide is generally perceived to be a 'bad thing', the so-called greenhouse effect caused by Carbon Dioxide and other atmospheric gases, is actually a vital part of the overall mechanism which keeps our Earth habitable. Nonetheless it is important to remember that it is a delicate balance of many variables (such as distance from the sun, atmospheric composition, rotational velocity and more) which gives Earth the particular climate that it enjoys. While we can safely assume that neither the distance between the Earth and the Sun nor the Earth's rotational velocity, will change significantly in our lifetimes the same cannot be said about the gaseous composition of the atmosphere. Global warming is the gradual increase in global temperatures caused by the emission of gases that trap the sun's heat in the Earth's atmosphere. The principal gases that contribute to global warming include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexaflouride and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). The carbon dioxide emissions are primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels for transportation, heating, electricity generation and other uses. What is the evidence for global warming? The globally pre-eminent body for assessing climate change is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).www.ipcc.ch. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, in recognition of the potential problem of climate change. The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. The major activity of the IPCC is to prepare Assessment Reports at regular intervals. These are comprehensive and up-to-date assessments of policy-relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, potential impacts of climate change and options for mitigation and adaptation. The first Assessment Report was completed in 1990, the second in 1995 and the third in 2001. The fourth report is expected in 2007.
The third Assessment Report consists of three volumes and is published in English, Arabic, French, Chinese, Spanish and Russian. Volume 1 (The Scientific Basis) consists of 882 pages, Volume 2 (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) consists of 1033 pages, Volume 3 (Mitigation) consists of 753 pages.
Volume 1, The Scientific Basis, concludes
Carbon Dioxide Equivalent units As noted in the paragraph 'What is global warming?': There are a multitude of gases that contribute to global warming. In order to be able to make meaningful comparisons between them, there is therefore a clear need to be able to put the global warming effect of each of the gases onto an 'equal footing'. Carbon Dioxide Equivalent units are therefore commonly used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on their global warming potential (GWP). The carbon dioxide equivalent measure for a gas is obtained by multiplying the volume of the gas by the GWP of that gas. For instance the GWP for methane is 21 hence one tonne of methane has the GWP of 21 tonnes of carbon dioxide. Sulphur Hexafluoride has a GWP of 23,900 i.e. one tonne of it is equivalent to 23,900 tonnes of carbon dioxide. The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that was adopted in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992. The UNFCCC is the first multinational treaty to recognise that mankind's activities are affecting the climate and, further, that climate change poses a threat to humanity. Back in 1992 and in line with the above objective of the Convention, the UNFCC established the goal for industrialised countries to return to their 1990 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 2000 as well as a long term goal of stabilising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at a sustainable level. In 1995 the Parties to the convention reviewed their progress and concluded that this non-binding goal would not lead to the achievement of the Convention's objectives. As a result the Parties agreed to pursue a complimentary agreement that would establish quantified emission limitations and reduction obligations for developed countries. This culminated in the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The terms of the Protocol are such that it was only ever intended to enter into force once countries, responsible for 55 per cent or more of global emissions, had ratified. New Zealand ratified the Protocol on the 19 December 2002. As of 23 September 2004 countries responsible for 44.2 per cent of global emissions had ratified. At that date major emitters that had not ratified were Australia, the United States and Russia and ratification by either of Russia or the US would have been enough, on its own, to ensure that the Protocol entered into force. In a somewhat surprising move (because it happened so rapidly) President Vladimir Putin of Russia announced at the beginning of October that Russia would ratify. After this things moved along quickly and Russia deposited its formal 'instrument of ratification' with the Secretary General of the United Nations in New York on the 18 November 2004. The terms of the Protocol are such that it formally enters into force 90 days after the final instrument of ratification is deposited: In other words the Protocol will enter into force on the 16 February 2005. While few national Governments have yet imposed limitations on domestic GHG emissions or established trading rules, this is changing rapidly. Europe is leading the way and, irrespective of the status of Kyoto, has committed itself to the European Union Emissions Trading Mechanism (EU ETS) that will enter into force in the EU on 1 January 2005. It is informally known as 'Cap and Trade' mechanism since major emitting industries all have a cap placed on their levels of emissions. If they exceed this cap they are required to buy permits, on the carbon market, sufficient to their level of excess emissions. At the moment a tonne of carbon dioxide (or, more accurately, the right to emit a tonne of carbon dioxide) is trading at about € 8.50. There are a number of companies involved in carbon trading, analysis and broking - one of the global leaders is 'Point Carbon' and their web site has a lot of useful information as well as recent news items. www.pointcarbon.com To cater for the rapidly expanding and evolving carbon market a wide array of market mechanisms are currently being developed around the world. Details What are the levels of global carbon dioxide emissions? Carbon Dioxide concentrations are now higher than at any time during the last 420,000 years. Concentrations, which are typically given as Parts per Million (PPM) were measured by the US's NOAA at around 379 PPM in March 2004. This represents an increase of 3PPM (or 0.8%) on the prior year's numbers of 376 PPM. This is a dramatic increase on concentrations before the industrial age which have been estimated at by NOAA at 280 PPM. As the numbers are so large it may help to consider them on a 'per capita' basis. The world population in 2003 was 6.3 billion hence Carbon Dioxide emissions of 17.1 billion tonnes can be more meaningfully stated as 2.7 tonnes per person. However one should note that there is an enormous variability between the highest and lowest per capita emissions amongst the various countries of the world. What are New Zealand's emissions? For most developed countries the energy sector is by far the most significant source of emissions but this is not the case here: On a CDE basis agriculture accounted for 49 per cent of total emissions in 2002, followed by the energy sector (43 per cent), industrial processes (5 per cent) and waste (3 per cent). Detailed inventory information on human made emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds from New Zealand's energy sources can be found at the following link www.med.govt.nz/energy/ghg . This is updated annually. Ministerial announcement on GHG emissions (03-Jul-'03) ( So what? Any scientist knows that it is never possible to absolutely prove a theory and the same is true of the relationship between greenhouse gases and climate change. It will never be possible to prove that a relationship exists. All that we can do is to compile supporting evidence. So what is the evidence? The answer to this question lies in one of the paragraphs before this one. Details Unfortunately global warming is not simply a matter of the world being slightly warmer or of sea levels being a little bit higher. Species (including humans) have evolved around certain climatic conditions and sea-levels. If temperatures change the resultant effects will be significant. For the human race one need only consider that that the overwhelming majority of humanity is concentrated along or near costs on just 10% of the land's surface. While it is not clear what global warming will mean for us; what it could mean should give one pause for thought. The remaining species of animals on the planet are much more at risk because they are much less mobile and adaptable than the human race. No-one can say with absolute certainty what global warming will mean for the wild animals of the world however numerous studies are underway. One of the most recent was an internationally-authored and well referenced article published in the January 2004 edition of the international journal 'Nature'. This predicted that a million species of animals could be extinct by 2050 due to climate change. Download the article from Nature's web-site (Details). Closer to home the April 2002 edition of the New Scientist highlighted "widespread coral bleaching" of the Great Barrier Reef. Damage was not limited to the Great Barrier Reef but was spread across the South Pacific. Thomas Goreau, president of the Global Coral Reef Alliance said at the time "it will take a long time before we have full confirmation....but when it is all in, I predict we will have confirmation that almost all corals across the entire South Pacific have died in the last few months." (Details). Since this article various scientific studies have shown additional information supporting ongoing bleaching of the GBR. Most recently (7 December 2004) an international study called 'Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2004' stated that one fifth of the world's coral reefs are damaged beyond repaid and it cited the principle reason as being climate change. Details Can wind energy make a difference? In short - yes! If New Zealand were to install 1,000 mega watts (MWs) of wind turbines we would be able to generate approximately 3.24 tera watt hours (TWh) of electricity every year from the wind. This is approximately equal to 10 per cent of our current annual electricity consumption of 33TWh. By generating this much power from wind turbines, rather than from coal fired power stations, it would be possible to avoid burning approximately 1,300,000 tonnes of coal annually and hence to avoid releasing 3,020,000 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide every year. This is equivalent to 0.75 tonnes for every person in the country or a reduction in total carbon dioxide equivalent (CDE) emissions of 3.9%. But to a certain extent this is not comparing 'apples with apples' and we should really be looking at the reduction in emissions, arising from electricity generation only, that wind turbines can achieve: In 2003 total emissions arising from electricity generation were 21 per cent of that year's CDE emissions of 77.9 million tonnes i.e. 16.4 million tonnes. Hence 1,000 MW could reduce electricity generation CDE emissions by 3.0/16.4 or just over 18 per cent. Whichever way one chooses to examine the numbers, the point is that wind energy can achieve a very substantial reduction in CDE emissions. This represents a major contribution to helping New Zealand meet its Kyoto commitments and to reducing a financial liability that would otherwise fall on the taxpayer. Assumptions: What can I do? We at the New Zealand Wind Energy Association firmly believe that wind generated electricity can make a significant and lasting downward adjustment in New Zealand's total Carbon Dioxide emissions. Electricity from the wind can do this at prices which are competitive with coal fired power generation. If you are concerned about climate change and the quality of the environment that you will bequeath to future generations, we would ask you to support wind energy. |
